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As much as I am absolutely thrilled that The Dark Knight grossed $533 million domestically (the second highest of all time behind Titanic) it is now obvious that studios are scrambling together for sloppy seconds in 2009. What they don't understand is that the The Dark Knight was its own event. No blockbuster this summer will have the same impact as that film did last year. Not only did it feature Heath Ledger's posthumous Oscar-winning portrayal, it was also one of the best films of the decade. The only summer entries I can think of this year that have any chance of unanimous critical success are maybe Public Enemies, Inglorious Basterds, and Funny People. And those aren't even being marketed as big-budget blockbusters. Moreover, all I'm trying to say here is this: Let The Dark Knight stay as The Dark Knight. I better not see any reviews this summer with the headline "The Dark Knight of 2009." Now that doesn't mean this summer isn't packed for some potentially great films. I think Funny People has a real shot at an Oscar nomination for best original screenplay, Public Enemies and Inglorious Basterds could be among the best films of the year, and Star Trek may be the next great rebooted franchise. No one really knows for sure until we see the damn thing. Ouch, sorry Wolverine. Don't worry, I'm not among the impatient who has downloaded the film. I won't rant about my hatred of spoilers, but the fact that people can't wait to see a film in theaters is beyond my understanding. How can you be a fan of a movie if you can't even respect the foundation of the industry? I'm all about ragging on studios and their greed, but don't take it out on the filmmakers who put their heart and soul into something. My deepest sympathies go out to Hugh Jackman. So much for not ranting. Anyways, what I find exciting about the summer movie season is the box-office. I hate when a film's quality is judged by its profit. For example, would people enjoy Watchmen more if it wasn't a box-office disappointment? If Beverly Hills Chihuahua was a straight-to-DVD release, would the $30 million of people who saw it on opening weekend be spared of such torture? It's a tricky and questionable debate, which is why I love posting predictions. It proves the mentality of a film before its direct impact on the public. Here are my predictions from the summer of 2008 compared to their actual results (where they placed throughout all of 2008): 1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull:
My Prediction: $410 million (1st) Actual Result: $317 million (3rd) 2. The Dark Knight: My Prediction: $380 million (2nd) Actual Result: $533 million (1st) 3. The Chronicles of Narnia: My Prediction: $320 million (3rd) Actual Result: $141 million (15th) 4. Iron Man: My Prediction: $300 million (4th) Actual Result: $318 million (2nd) 5. Hancock: My Prediction: $290 million (5th) Actual Result: $227 million (4th) 6. Wall-E: My Prediction: $250 million (6th) Actual Result: $223 (5th) 7. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor: My Prediction: $210 million (7th) Actual Result: $102 (25th) 8. Kung Fu Panda: My Prediction: $200 million (8th) Actual Result: $215 million (6th) 9. Speed Racer: My Prediction: $170 million (9th) Actual Result: $43 million (64th) 10. The Incredible Hulk: My Prediction: $165 million (10th) Actual Result: $134 million (17th) Obviously I was off with several films, especially Speed Racer and The Chronicles of Narnia (although no one predicted that one right) but I was pretty close with Iron Man and Kung Fu Panda. So without further ado, here are my top ten box office predictions for the summer of 2009. I will give my estimated guess, its opening weekend, and its possible highest and lowest numbers.  1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (6/24/2009) Opening: $185 million (Five Day) Overall: $450 million Highest: $500 million Lowest: $300 million  2. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince (7/17/2009) Opening: $130 million Overall: $400 million Highest: $450 million Lowest: $290 million  3. Star Trek (5/08/2009) Opening: $100 million Overall: $350 million Highest: $400 million Lowest: $200 million  4. Terminator Salvation (5/21/2009) Opening: $130 million (Five Day) Overall: $315 million Highest: $350 million Lowest: $180 million  5. Disney Pixar's Up (5/29/2009) Opening: $70 million Overall: $230 million Highest: $300 million Lowest: $150 million  6. Angels and Demons Opening: $80 million Overall: $225 million Highest: $300 million Lowest: $150 million  7. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (5/01/2009) Opening: $70 million Overall: $200 million Highest: $300 million Lowest: $100 million  8. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian (5/22/2009) Opening: $65 million (Four Day) Overall: $200 million Highest: $250 million Lowest: $100 million  9. Public Enemies (7/1/2009) Opening: $50 million (Five Day) Overall: $150 million Highest: $180 million Lowest: $70 million  10. Funny People (7/31/2009) Overall: $145 million Highest: $200 million Lowest: $70 million |
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"How do your weapons work?" -District 9
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