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 THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS (2009)

Best Picture
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire (If going by my top ten of the year)

Who Got Snubbed: The Dark Knight, Revoutionary Road, Wall-E, and The Wrestler

Who Shouldn't Be There: The Reader

Best Director:
Will Win: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)

Should Win: Anybody but Steven Daldry

Who Got Snubbed: Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight), Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road), and Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler)

Who Shouldn't Be There: Steven Daldry (The Reader)

Best Actor:
Will Win: Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

Should Win: Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

Who Got Snubbed: Leonardo Dicaprio (Revolutionary Road) and Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)

Who Shouldn't Be There: All Are Worthy. It was a great year for the Best Actor race.

Best Actress:
Will Win: Kate Winslet

Should Win: Kate Winslet (Because she's overdue)

Who Got Snubbed: Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)

Who Shouldn't Be There: Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)

Should Win: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)

Who Got Snubbed: Liev Schrieber (Defiance)

Who Shouldn't Be There: All five deserve their nominations

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona)

Should Win: Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)

Who Got Snubbed: Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Who Shouldn't Be There: I don't really care about this one. It's a wide-open category.

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Dustin Lance Black (Milk)

Should Win: Martin McDonagh (In Bruges)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win/Should Win: Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)

Original Predictions (Spring 2008)
-Body of Lies
-Burn After Reading
-Changeling
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Revolutionary Road


FEBRUARY 2008: An Oscar Year For The Ages

    Well, it's over.

    Oscar season has come and gone in a flash (like every year), and we take a piece of history with us. 2007 was a year of wonderful films, with each week bringing us something big and/or exciting. It had its ups (more four-star reviews this year than I've ever given) and its downs (Spiderman 3 and the Strike) like every year does, so let's take a look back at a race that has been over-shadowed by a circus of a presidential campaign. Alexandra Pelosi's Sneaking Into The Flying Circus will explain.
   
    So let's start of with what's important. No Country For Old Men was the big winner of the night, picking up four Oscars including Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Javier Bardem), and Adapted Screenplay. Any surprises there? Not really. It deserved to win just as much as any of the other nominees. There were a couple of small surprises in other categories including Marion Cotillard picking up best actress in La Vie En Rose and Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton. The Academy has mildly redeemed itself for honoring performances and not careers in the supporting categories (the Alan Arkin win last year was quite obvious). If Ruby Dee won, that would have added further proof. Nothing against her, it's just that her performance in American Gangster didn't feel big enough for a nomination. Swinton's award was pleasant and worthy.
 
    In the Best Actor category, Daniel Day-Lewis was the clear winner from the start, deservingly of course. He anchored There Will Be Blood to greatness and no other living actor could have taken on that role as effortlessly as he did (he just makes it look so damn easy). The other four nominees got the credit they deserved, especially the surprise of Tommy Lee Jones getting honored for his nomination for In the Valley of Elah. It stands as one of his most honest and sincere roles of his career. Other nominees included Viggo Mortensen, George Clooney, and Johnny Depp. In any other year, they all could have been a frontrunner. But this truly was Daniel Day-Lewis's year.

    Because I really didn't mind seeing any nominees from the big categories win, there were two categories that I truly routed for, and they both won. Diablo Cody's story is an absolutely beautiful one, whose words at her acceptance speech brought tears to my eyes. "I want to thank my family for loving me for exactly who I am." Her character and story is the reason why the Oscars were invented. Juno was a wonderful film and an outstanding original screenplay. The other category was Best Song. My favorite film of the year was Once and its beautiful song "Falling Slowly" took home the big prize. The two recipients, Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova were ecstatic. But when their acceptance speech came, they were shamelessly caught off, with Irglova unable to say any words. They let her back on after the commercial break to give her speech, but yet again, winners of one of the biggest awards someone can receive in a lifetime is caught off by music. LET THE WINNERS HAVE THEIR MOMENT!

    Anyway, the night went smoothly. Jon Stewart was back again for the second time and he has proven to be a perfect choice to host the Oscars. People seem to hate him as the host, but I thought he was timely, funny, and spot on. In his opening monologue, he played it safe but was political of course with some hilarious satire. "Julie Christie was absolutely amazing in 'Away from Her. It was a moving story of a woman who forgets her own husband. Hillary Clinton called it the feel-good movie of the year." Other great lines from Stewart included:

"The fight is over. So tonight, welcome to the makeup sex."

"Oscar is 80 this year, which makes him now automatically the front-runner for the Republican (presidential) nomination."

"Normally when you see a black man or a woman president, an asteroid is about to hit the Statue of Liberty."

"Not all films did as well as Juno obviously. The films that were made about the Iraq war, let's face it, did not do as well. But I'm telling you, if we stay the course and keep these movies in the theatres we can turn this around. I don't care if it takes 100 years. Withdrawing the Iraq movies would only embolden the audience. We cannot let the audience win."


    To see the whole speech, I'm sure it's already on YouTube.

    Overall, the Oscars were pretty standard. But when the scare of losing this ceremony occurred, I felt warm and honored to see the stars do what they do best, to live out the night in glamour and celebratory elegance.

Best Motion Picture of the Year
no country for old men

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
daniel day-lewis for there will be blood

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
marion cotillard for la vie en rose

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
javier bardem for no country for old men

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
tilda swinton for michael clayton

Best Achievement in Directing
joel coen and ethan coen for no country for old men

Best original screenplay
diablo cody for juno

best adapted screenplay
joel and ethan coen for no country for old men

Best Achievement in Cinematography
robert elswit for there will be blood

Best Achievement in Editing
The bourne ultimatum

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet street

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Best Achievement in Makeup
La Vie En Rose

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
dario marianelli for atonement

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
glen hansard and marketa irglova for once "falling Slowly".....YES!

Best Achievement in Sound mixing
the bourne ultimatum

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
the bourne ultimatum

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
The Golden Compass

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Ratatouille

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
the counterfeiters

Best Documentary, Features
taxi to the dark side

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
cynthia wade vanessa roth  for freeheld

Best Short Film, Animated
peter and the wolf

Best Short Film, Live Action
Le mozart des pickpockets

honorary oscar
robert boyle

February 2008: If I Picked the Oscar Winners

Best Actor: In this category, it is really easy to see who is going to win and his name is Daniel Day-Lewis. The man is an unstoppable force in There Will Be Blood and I am usually against the frontrunner in this category. But I couldn’t take my eyes of his performance, one that is as strong as any performance this decade.

Best Actress: For me, I am totally going for the underdog in this category. My heart is aching for Ellen Page in Juno to win because the character she has created is the hero for teenagers who need a hero. Plus, she reminds me of my best friend, which is always a friendly reminder. 

Best Supporting Actor: See this category is always tough to pick. I think Javier Bardem has created the Hannibal Lecter of our time with No Country For Old Men. I wouldn’t mind seeing him win (which he is the definite frontrunner) but I would also love to see Hal Holbrook take the crown for Into The Wild. He has the most heartbreaking scene all year with the snubbed Emile Hirsch.

Best Supporting Actress: I swear to God, if Ruby Dee wins for American Gangster, then there is no justice in the supporting categories anymore. After Alan Arkin’s win last year, I really wanted to join the Academy so there would be another young voter (the average age for the AMPAS has to be like 85). Dee’s performance is a borderline cameo and after the SAG win, I am really afraid of what might come next. So if I picked the winner: anyone but Ruby Dee. 

Best Director: This tough to choose. I am bummed that the Academy snubbed Joe Wright for Atonement and Sean Penn for Into The Wild, but I am humbly surprised with Jason Reitman for Juno. I think the Coen Brothers finally deserve their Oscar and No Country for Old Men is a worthy selection for their win (it’s a shame they don’t already have one for Fargo). Although I would also love a win for Reitman or Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood. Sorry Tony Gilroy, I thought Michael Clayton was exciting and intelligent, but not one of the best of the year.

BEST PICTURE: As much as I wish Once was nominated (it never had a real shot), I must say again that this year has been an excellent year for films. If going by my top ten list, then No Country For Old Men would be the winner. Atonement is a beautiful film and is deserving of its nomination along with the political bloodbath of There Will Be Blood. But my heart is going with Juno, the little engine that could. 

Who Will Win:

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood

Best Actress: Ellen Page for Juno (I don't care what the precursors say, she will be the upset of the year!)

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem for No Country For Old Men

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett for I’m Not There

Best Director: The Coen Brothers for No Country For Old Men

Best Picture: No Country For Old Men

Best Original Screenplay: Juno

Best Adapted Screenplay: No Country For Old Men

Best Animated Feature: Ratatouille

Best Documentary: No End In Sight

Best Song: “Falling Slowly” for Once


February 3rd, 2008: The Oscars are in three weeks. What Will Happen?
-It has been three months of hell with this really stupid writer's strike. Now I support the writers and would love to see them get the royalties they do deserve, but their business ethics are getting just as bad as some of the corporations. They have yet to let the Oscars go on as planned. I understand that they have to make a stand, but do you really want to be responsible for crippling the Hollywood economy? The Oscars bring in more than just TV ratings. Businesses and People who will hurt if the ceremony is called off: Designers, Caterers, TV Stations, Oscar nominees, the fans, and my heart. In a time where our country hurts and we desperately look for the good, the Oscars can give audiences a night where they can celebrate. And to the writers, don't become hypocrites and stoop to the level of the businesses you're striking against. Is it possible to protest a protest? PLEASE LET THE OSCARS HAPPEN so I don't have to watch them like the Golden Globes: A 60 minutes Special.

P.S: If you think this was just me ranting, then you are correct.



January 2008: THE OSCAR NOMINATIONS ARE HERE! THEY WERE HARD TO PREDICT AND THE EVIDENCE HERE PROVES IT.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

George Clooney in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DW/Paramount)
Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent)
Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros.)
Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War" (Universal)
Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild" (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal)
Julie Christie in "Away from Her" (Lionsgate)
Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse)
Laura Linney in "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)
Ellen Page in "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" (The Weinstein Company)
Ruby Dee in "American Gangster" (Universal)
Saoirse Ronan in "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone" (Miramax)
Tilda Swinton in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)

Best animated feature film of the year
"Persepolis" (Sony Pictures Classics): Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney): Brad Bird
"Surf's Up" (Sony Pictures Releasing): Ash Brannon and Chris Buck

Achievement in art direction
"American Gangster" (Universal): Art Direction: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
"Atonement" (Focus Features): Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
"The Golden Compass" (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners): Art Direction: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount): Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Art Direction: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Achievement in cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros.): Roger Deakins
"Atonement" (Focus Features): Seamus McGarvey
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax/Pathé Renn): Janusz Kaminski
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Roger Deakins
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Robert Elswit

Achievement in costume design
"Across the Universe" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Albert Wolsky
"Atonement" (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal) Alexandra Byrne
"La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse) Marit Allen
"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount) Colleen Atwood

Achievement in directing
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax/Pathé Renn), Julian Schnabel
"Juno" (Fox Searchlight), Jason Reitman
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.), Tony Gilroy
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax), Paul Thomas Anderson

Best documentary feature
"No End in Sight" (Magnolia Pictures) A Representational Pictures Production: Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
"Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience" (The Documentary Group) A Documentary Group Production: Richard E. Robbins
"Sicko" (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company) A Dog Eat Dog Films Production: Michael Moore and Meghan O'Hara
"Taxi to the Dark Side" (THINKFilm) An X-Ray Production: Alex Gibney and Eva Orner
"War/Dance" (THINKFilm) A Shine Global and Fine Films Production: Andrea Nix Fine and Sean Fine

Best documentary short subject
"Freeheld" A Lieutenant Films Production: Cynthia Wade and Vanessa Roth
"La Corona (The Crown)" A Runaway Films and Vega Films Production: Amanda Micheli and Isabel Vega
"Salim Baba" A Ropa Vieja Films and Paradox Smoke Production: Tim Sternberg and Francisco Bello
"Sari's Mother" (Cinema Guild) A Daylight Factory Production: James Longley

Achievement in film editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal): Christopher Rouse
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax/Pathé Renn): Juliette Welfling
"Into the Wild" (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment): Jay Cassidy
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Dylan Tichenor

Best foreign language film of the year
"Beaufort" Israel
"The Counterfeiters" Austria
"Katyn" Poland
"Mongol" Kazakhstan
"12" Russia

Achievement in makeup
"La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
"Norbit" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount): Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Walt Disney): Ve Neill and Martin Samuel

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
"Atonement" (Focus Features) Dario Marianelli
"The Kite Runner" (DreamWorks, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Participant Productions, Distributed by Paramount Classics): Alberto Iglesias
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.) James Newton Howard
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
"3:10 to Yuma" (Lionsgate) Marco Beltrami

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
"Falling Slowly" from "Once" (Fox Searchlight) Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and: Marketa Irglova
"Happy Working Song" from "Enchanted" (Walt Disney): Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
"Raise It Up" from "August Rush" (Warner Bros.): Nominees to be determined
"So Close" from "Enchanted" (Walt Disney): Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
"That's How You Know" from "Enchanted" (Walt Disney): Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz

Best motion picture of the year
"Atonement" (Focus Features) A Working Title Production: Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers
"Juno" (Fox Searchlight) A Dancing Elk Pictures, LLC Production: Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.) A Clayton Productions, LLC Production: Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox and Kerry Orent, Producers
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production: Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production: JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers

Best animated short film
"I Met the Walrus" A Kids & Explosions Production: Josh Raskin
"Madame Tutli-Putli" (National Film Board of Canada) A National Film Board of Canada Production Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
"Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)" (Premium Films) A BUF Compagnie Production Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse
"My Love (Moya Lyubov)" (Channel One Russia) A *beep* Studio, Channel One Russia and Dentsu Tec Production Alexander Petrov
"Peter & the Wolf" (BreakThru Films) A BreakThru Films/Se-ma-for Studios Production Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman

Best live action short film
"At Night" A Zentropa Entertainments 10 Production: Christian E. Christiansen and Louise Vesth
"Il Supplente (The Substitute)" (Sky Cinema Italia) A Frame by Frame Italia Production: Andrea Jublin
"Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)" (Premium Films) A Karé Production: Philippe Pollet-Villard
"Tanghi Argentini" (Premium Films) An Another Dimension of an Idea Production: Guido Thys and Anja Daelemans
"The Tonto Woman" A Knucklehead, Little Mo and Rose Hackney Barber Production: Daniel Barber and Matthew Brown

Achievement in sound editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal): Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Skip Lievsay
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney): Randy Thom and Michael Silvers
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Matthew Wood
"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins

Achievement in sound mixing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal) Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney): Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane
"3:10 to Yuma" (Lionsgate): Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe
"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin

Achievement in visual effects
"The Golden Compass" (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners): Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Walt Disney): John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier
"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier

Adapted screenplay
"Atonement" (Focus Features), Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
"Away from Her" (Lionsgate), Written by Sarah Polley
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax/Pathé Renn), Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax), Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson

Original screenplay
"Juno" (Fox Searchlight), Written by Diablo Cody
"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM), Written by Nancy Oliver
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.), Written by Tony Gilroy
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Brad Bird; Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
"The Savages" (Fox Searchlight), Written by Tamara Jenkins 

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